(1) Monthly existing home sales are near record lows. New home starts are at record lows.
(2) Shadow (distressed) inventory will take years to clean up.....51 months for New Jersey, 29 months for Florida, months and months where ever you live.
(3) A ship this big on the wrong course will take a long time (3 more years) to return to smooth waters.
Some telegraph messages are good.
Two marketing directors told me that on hand heavy machinery inventory has been significantly reduced in the last 6 months and a recreational vehicle marketing director reported that four wheel vehicles (think golf carts and hunting ATVs) can't keep up in production.
A regional bank is taking a gamble by financing several upper end homes to be built on their existing REO lots........what do they see coming?
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